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Troubling assumptions behind GBD 2019 on the health risks of red meat

admin by admin
August 4, 2022
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We echo the compliments of Alice Stanton and colleagues

1

  • Stanton AV
  • Leroy F
  • Elliott C
  • Mann N
  • Wall P
  • De Smet S
36-fold higher estimate of deaths attributable to red meat intake in GBD 2019: is this plausible?.

in the 2019 Global Burden of Disease, Injury and Risk Factor (GBD) Study. We also support Stanton and colleagues’ call for further clarification, justification or reconsideration of the theoretical minimum zero-risk exposure level for raw red meat of selected by GBD in their latest ratings. Not only does the estimated burden increase seem implausible, but the lack of transparency in the assumptions underlying the calculations undermines the authority of the GBD estimates.

When the assumptions used within a study are not clearly stated and explained, results become questionable and replication difficult. Estimates of preventability are extremely dependent on their underlying assumptions—as outlined by discussions of population attributable fraction methodologies.

2

What does attributed population fraction mean?.

,

3

  • Azadnajafabad S
  • Karimian M
  • Roshani S
  • et al.
Estimates of population fractions attributable to cardiovascular disease at different levels of total plasma cholesterol in a large-scale cross-sectional study: a focus on prevention strategies and treatment coverage.

Further, the insufficient clarity of such assumptions potentially reduces their use in policy development.

The International Cancer Research Fund (WCRF) has been at the forefront of exploring the relationships between diet, nutrition, physical activity and cancer for more than 20 years. After our review of the evidence regarding raw red meat, we concluded that both red and processed meat are causal contributors to the development of colorectal cancer. However, neither the WCRF nor other international organizations recommend the complete avoidance of meat. In many diets around the world, red meat is an important source of several nutrients.

4

What is the role of meat in a healthy diet?

Removing meat from such diets is impractical and unrealistic and carries a risk of nutritional deficiency that is judged to outweigh the risk of future cancer.

5

  • Knuppel A
  • Letter K
  • Fensom GK
  • et al.
Meat intake and cancer risk: prospective analysis in the UK Biobank.

,

6

World Cancer Research FundAmerican Institute for Cancer Research
Diet, nutrition, physical activity and cancer: a global perspective: a summary of the third expert report.

The lack of a clear rationale for the assumptions underlying the GBD estimates is problematic, unsupported by evidence, and unrealistic.

We declare no competing interests.

References

  1. 1.
    • Stanton AV
    • Leroy F
    • Elliott C
    • Mann N
    • Wall P
    • De Smet S

    36-fold higher estimate of deaths attributable to red meat intake in GBD 2019: is this plausible?.

    Lancet. 2022; 399: e23-e26

  2. 2.

    What does attributed population fraction mean?.

    Before Chronic Dis. 2007; 4: A14

  3. 3.
    • Azadnajafabad S
    • Karimian M
    • Roshani S
    • et al.

    Estimates of population fractions attributable to cardiovascular disease at different levels of total plasma cholesterol in a large-scale cross-sectional study: a focus on prevention strategies and treatment coverage.

    J Diabetes Metab Disord. 2020; 19: 1453-1463

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  5. 4.

    What is the role of meat in a healthy diet?

    Tilt Front. 2018; 8: 5-10

  6. 5.
    • Knuppel A
    • Letter K
    • Fensom GK
    • et al.

    Meat intake and cancer risk: prospective analysis in the UK Biobank.

    Int J Epidemiol. 2020; 49: 1540-1552

  7. 6.
    • World Cancer Research Fund
    • American Institute for Cancer Research

    Diet, nutrition, physical activity and cancer: a global perspective: a summary of the third expert report.

Item information

Publication history

Published: 06 August 2022

iDENTIFICATION

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01283-1

Copyright

© 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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