They say pressure Diamond does. I say it’s true for recessions that create amazing startups. Airbnb, Uber, and Groupon Here are some great examples of companies that emerged during the 2008 recession.
How does one build, measure, and navigate the tailwinds, especially when consumer behavior is changing dramatically? That’s without even getting into the complexities of 2022, like the loss of ad targeting (due to Apple’s app tracking transparency program) and post-pandemic behavior changes.
But there is a way to strategize and execute during a recession – my Triple R model: Reforecast, Reprioritize and Refine.
Re-predict your models
If there are new channels and major tests in the picture, it would be good to hide those when the markets recover.
It’s no secret that average revenue per user (ARPU) is declining across companies across the board. A prime example is stock-trading platform Robinhood, which reported a 62% drop in ARPU — $53 compared to a peak of $137 in the first quarter of 2021.
That’s a big fail. If Robinhood had once been comfortable enough to acquire users for $137, it would have gained nearly three times as much revenue as it does now.
In the chart above, ARPU will decrease from $137 to $53. Specifically, colored bubbles represent channels and their CAC/ARPU relationship. Robinhood was getting users in the $130 CAC range and was expecting ARPU of $137. The change in these channels shows how CAC stays constant while ARPU goes down.