Rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding midweek along the I-95 corridor, potentially slowing traffic for people traveling before the Thanksgiving holiday.
Surface analysis Monday afternoon depicts a blocked frontal boundary across South Florida and an extended ridge of high pressure across much of the Southeast. These two features will work together through Wednesday to increase overland flow and bring the risk of localized heavy downpours, especially when a trough of low pressure develops along the east coast Tuesday into Wednesday. Deep atmospheric moisture will exist over much of eastern and central Florida, resulting in the risk of flash flooding. The Weather Prediction Center describes some improved flash flooding potential along the I-95 corridor Monday through Tuesday as abnormally high moisture content moves up. 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected in coastal areas through Wednesday, but there could be some locally higher amounts. The model instructions describe a modest amount of volatility, which may lead to some rumbles of thunder. Severe weather does not appear likely as of Tuesday’s release of the Storm Prediction Center’s advisory. Areas hit hard by flooding from Ian and additional rain from Nicole should pay close attention to the forecast, as some of these areas will again face the risk of additional flooding concerns.
East to northeast winds will continue the risk of coastal flooding and erosion. This risk will be ongoing in the St. Louis River Basin. Johns, especially in places prone to flooding and on the west bank of the river. The trough of low pressure should gradually move away from the coast by Wednesday, reducing rain chances from west to east through the Thanksgiving holiday. Most places will dry out and warm up before the next cold front passes through, which is likely to occur Friday into Saturday.